Friday, February 03, 2012
Quick Gingrich Call This Evening
We received a Newt Gingrich call just a couple minutes ago. It was Newt himself in the recording saying "thank you" quite a bit. Urged us to make America a better place and go vote tomorrow. A relatively quick call, but he now surges well ahead of Mitt Romney in our voter contact scorecard. This call and his push poll from the other day are two more contacts than the Romney camp have done this entire Nevada GOP caucus season.
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Even with no effort in Nevada (he did show up here in Elko today though) I see Romney is still wayyyy out front - up by 25 points on Real Clear Politics average - and surging. Interestingly that is also wayyyy down fron 2008 when he was up by 37%.
ReplyDeleteI think the thing to keep in mind is that the the difference in Romney's lead is probably more a function of who his opponents are rather than his own strength. If he winds up with about 50% of the vote he will have matched his performance from 2008. The non-Romney vote will essentially be the same, the main difference is that rather than being spread across Paul, McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, Giuliani, and Hunter it is only being spread across three candidates: Gingrich, Paul and Santorum.
ReplyDeleteI think turnout will be higher than in '08. I mean the GOP '08 caucus was almost an afterthought. Not a lot of campaigning or money thrown at it. So I think Romney won easily with the Mormon vote and not a lot negative ads thrown around. In fact I can't remember any ads from then. A 25+ point win today will go a long way to wrapping this up, especially ig Gingrich falters to third and in the teens. But we'll see.
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