Find Chuck Norris Google Search

From the Shenanigans blog over at Politico.com, Mike Huckabee supporter and toughest man in the world Chuck Norris now has Google's number too.

Do an "I'm Feeling Lucky" search on Google with the words "Find Chuck Norris" and you'll be told "Google won't search for Chuck Norris because it knows you don't find Chuck Norris, he finds you."

The spoof site, and it does have the Google look down pat, is the brainchild of Arran Schlosberg.

McCain Wins, Bill Loses and a Lee Atwater Film Appears

Has John McCain's campaign truly returned from the dead? Are even Dems getting sick of Bill Clinton? And the Lee Atwater story makes the big screen.

• With John McCain now the projected winner of Florida, and Rudy Giuliani on the verge of quitting, it's probably time to officially declare him the GOP frontrunner.
• After Bill Clinton's recent performances on the campaign trail for Hillary, many former supporters are souring on the former prez. One fan even starts a site, ShutUpBill.com, with an open letter signed by "Pretty Much Everyone."
• The political documentary renaissance continues with the upcoming release of "Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story." The Noland Walker and Stefan Forbes film looks at the legendary political operative who helped GOP candidates for two decades.

Clinton and Cruise On The Hardship of Campaigning

Almost as funny as the Election/Clinton video, except Witherspoon was playing a character and Cruise is, sadly, playing himself.

Politics Meets Twitter

Ever wonder what people are saying about presidential candidates in 140 characters or less?

Now you can with Politweets.

The recently-launched site tracks Twitter messages that mention a candidate's name. Currently, Barack Obama is the most popular.

If The Caucus Stunk, Why Punish Taxpayers?

Complaints about wacky rules, weird math, overzealous precinct captains and a general sense of "what the hell is going on?" were to be expected when Nevada held its first real presidential caucus. But the solution to such problems, as proposed by Dina Titus, stinks even more.

The state senator has announced she will introduce legislation in 2009 for the establishment of a Nevada presidential primary instead of caucuses. While it's not completely clear if this means the forming of a separate presidential-only January primary or the moving up of Nevada's traditional August primary, both options have big problems.

If Titus is proposing the creation of a January date solely for the presidential primary, this would mean Nevada taxpayers would be on the hook for three separate elections in 2012. Even more egregious would be the fact that Nevada taxpayers would be paying for a political party function that excludes the 200,000 or so voters who aren't registered Democrats or Republicans. If the parties want their own January date, let them to continue to pay for it.

However, if the Titus proposal entails moving the usual August primary up to January, the cost to taxpayers is just the addition of a few names to an existing ballot. But then there is a whole new problem created.

While American are becoming used to marathon presidential campaigns, do we really want to extend that to state assemblymen, congressmen, county supervisors, school board members, etc.? If Nevada's August primary was moved to January you would have candidates campaigning and putting up signs in the summer of 2011 for an election to be settled in November 2012. Do Nevadans really want a David Bobzien or Dean Heller hitting the campaign trail just a few months after being sworn in?

And then there would be the 10 months between a January primary and the November general election. While the presidential candidates will have moved on to Florida and Super Tuesday, state and local primary winners would be left with the expense and effort of having to keep their name, not to mention campaign signs, in front of the voting public for almost another full year.

The actual solution, though, is pretty simple. There's no state law saying political parties have to run caucuses with confusing rules. That was their own doing. So if most people want the simple one-person, one-vote without someone seeing it primary experience, give it to them. Set up precincts with a ballot box, keep the doors open longer and have an absentee voting system for those who can't attend. You could even have an open primary for your party if you were so inclined, it's your dime.

Now some die-hards will argue that the caucus is all about electing delegates, that in turn go to county conventions, then state conventions and, for the lucky few, the national convention. And this is absolutely true.

But two quick points. Most of those delegates "elected" at the caucus are non-binding. They can vote for whoever they want at their conventions. And, most important of all, it was the raw percentages, or beauty contest, that Americans wanted to know. It didn't matter that Barack Obama may have actually won one more delegate than Hillary Clinton, the story was she had more "votes" and was declared the victor.

Plus, wouldn't it have been nice to see how many people actually supported John Edwards, instead of the 4% he ended up with after "viability" rules were enforced.

The See You Next Tuesday 527

Nixon dirty trickster Roger Stone is back with one of the more interestingly named 527s in political history - Citizens United Not Timid.

Created ostensibly to "educate the American public about what Hillary Clinton really is" but more so to sell a lot of $25 t-shirts, the group is officially fronted by a Miami bartender nicknamed "Noodles" but is all the handiwork of Stone.

Even funnier, or more offensive depending on your opinion of Hillary, is The Weekly Standard story on how Stone and his merry band of 527 pranksters (who go by names from the Grateful Dead and Bond films) actually launched this venture.

Dirty Tricks, A Broke Huck and French Book Buyers Getting the Shaft

Eventually all presidential campaigns get dirty. It's what works. Even the likable Mike Huckabee did push polling, though now he's broke. Much like the poor French bibliophile who by law has to pay at least 95% of a book's list price. That and Dick Morris below in a roundup of, mostly, political news:

• Political dirty tricks expert tells all. On whether one should play fair: "You don’t win any prizes for running a moral campaign. Success in politics is all or nothing: a candidate wins or loses, period, and either ends up with power (and the extreme likelihood of retaining power) or no power whatsoever. So the “right” thing is simply defined as the “winning” thing."
• Dick Morris thinks Clinton's South Carolina strategy is to "trigger a massive white backlash against Obama (that) will drive white voters to Hillary." Of course, Morris' other recent columns include "There's a Method to Crafty Bill's Madness," "Hillary Clinton's Massive Conflict of Interest," "In Contrast to Obama, Hillary Plays the Race Card," etc.
• Huckabee's broke. He's pulling back from Florida and looking to cherry-pick overlooked southern states. Apparently Fred Thompson did doom Huck in South Carolina.
• French unions run amok. Amazon.com was successfully sued by the French Booksellers' Union over the company's free shipping offer. Apparently it is against the law in France to sell a book for more than a 5% discount off the list price. When Amazon's free shipping is factored in the total price broke that barrier. They are currently being fined $1,000 euros a day, though Amazon has said they will ignore the order. Meanwhile, French consumers continue to overpay.

Chaos At The Caucus

With lines to the end of the Galena High School parking lot and the top of the hour drawing near a mild sense of panic began to rumble through the Reno crowd as word of the doors being shut at 9 a.m. started to spread. Some said it would close at nine sharp, others said they surely couldn't do that, but nobody knew for sure. Not even the Ron Paul supporter sporting a pair of pony-tails hanging from the front of his shaved head. All he could do was wish you luck if you made it in. Well, that and a request to vote for Paul.

But as uncertain as things seemed outside the Nevada Republican Caucus Saturday morning it only grew more hectic once a person finally made it in. If you were the first from your precinct you were automatically put in charge, whether you wanted to or not, and given a huge packet filled with an American flag, ballots, some instructions, a donation envelope and a myriad of forms.

So while voters wandered the halls of the school trying to find their precinct, a fresh-faced Mitt Romney supporter earnestly scanned the crowd looking for those unfortunate few with the big manila envelopes. She approached one and asked if he could have a Romney delegate read from her flier. She needn't have bothered.

Although there were a litany of procedures and elections scheduled to take place first, it quickly became apparent that once people finally found their precinct room 90% of them just wanted to vote for their presidential preference and leave. Becoming and/or voting for specific delegates wasn't at the top of their agenda.

So precinct chairmen, with little to no direction, had to decide what to do. First and foremost was when to actually start. With hundreds of people still in line waiting to enter, should they begin at the appointed time of 9:15 a.m. or wait. But that was just the beginning of the problems.

Apparently many of the precinct packets had the wrong number of delegates assigned to them. In one room, shared by two precincts, both thought they had five each (one packet had three originally but it had been crossed out and "five" written in). Once one group had five who wanted to be delegates, they borrowed the forms of the other since someone said it was a "contiguous" precinct. Whether it was correct or not didn't seem to matter.

So in the end, one precinct had close to the assumed allotment of 10 delegates, though nobody knew who supported who, prompting one caucus goer to ask how do they know who they are voting for. The answer was simple, it "didn't matter" as: a) there wasn't going to be an election of delegates since there were enough slots for people who actually wanted to be one, and b) the delegates were nonbinding anyway. Delegates can vote for who they choose come April 26 at the state convention.

Then there were the problems with the voter rolls given to precinct chairmen. The smaller of the above precincts only had one other voter appear and, as luck would have it, his name wasn't among the 250+ listed as registered Republicans. Nevertheless, his vote was counted (though his registration was verified later).

Throw in the added confusion of if extra blank ballots could be given from one precinct to another, one chairman said no and they had to be confiscated while the other said it didn't matter, and you had a situation ripe for fraud if one wasn't already so confused.

But what about the 10 above-mentioned delegates?

Well, let's just say most of them will be in for a surprise a few weeks down the road. As our beleaguered chairman turned in his two ballots he happened to mention that his five allotted delegates had been used by another precinct that needed them. The party official looked confused, "What do you mean? You only had one."

Nevada Ends Duncan Hunter Campaign

A Nevada caucus claims its first presidential campaign casualty today.

Hours after finishing with just 2% of the Republican vote, Duncan Hunter has announced the end of his campaign. He intends to prepare for the 2008 defense bill and build the border fence.

Hunter may not be the only candidate to be done in by the Silver State. Democrat John Edwards was expected by some to be in a tight three-way race coming in to Saturday's caucus. Instead, he ended the day with just 4%.

Nevada Caucus Day Tidbits

While at this hour we all know Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney won Saturday in Nevada, we'll look at some of the other stories surrounding the Silver State's first meaningful presidential caucus.

• Harry Reid was right. Laughed at as being hopelessly optimistic with his 100,000 voter estimate last year, the Senator was vindicated with a huge Democratic turnout. An estimated 120,000 Democrats voted.
• Either Bill Clinton was wrong or the Culinary isn't the political powerhouse it is cracked up to be. After all the controversy over the Culinary Union's special at-large precincts, and the prediction they would all go to Culinary-endorsed Barack Obama, Hillary takes seven of the nine. At the Paris, she won by 37 points.
• Maybe it was the white t-shirts?
• Maybe it was the black/brown rift?
• Or maybe they just didn't care? Party officials thought 5,000 would attend the nine at-large casino precincts. The actual numbers were far, far short of that on a day when other precincts were overwhelmed with voters.
• For Republicans the big Nevada news isn't necessarily who won, but who has just captured second. After filling Nevada GOP mailboxes and hitting the airwaves, Ron Paul's payoff is the silver medal with his 200-vote margin over John McCain.
• GOP turnout was also higher than expected with more than 43,000 voters. While this set a Republican record, those numbers pale in comparison to the Democrats and should be a cause for worries come November.
• Another problem was execution. Reno Republicans complain of disorganization and the ease of which fraud could have taken place. The funny thing is, they don't know the half of it. We'll have more on that tomorrow or Monday (Chaos at the Caucus).

Clinton, Romney Win Nevada Presidential Caucus

Apparently political pollsters have found their groove again, for now at least, as there were no upsets in Nevada's presidential caucuses. Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney were the late favorites and both won Saturday in the Silver State.

With 90% of Democratic precincts reporting, Clinton had 51% of the state delegates to Barack Obama's 45%. John Edwards finished with just 4%.

For Republicans, Romney was the big winner with 52% of the vote with just a few precincts left to report. The battle for second is interesting in that Ron Paul is currently holding off John McCain by about 100 votes. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee are in a close battle for fourth.

Is Ron Paul Campaign Expecting Problems With Nevada Caucus?

If one was to go by recent Ron Paul campaign emails, Saturday's Nevada GOP presidential caucus is looking like a potential disaster.

Forget for a moment the problems with people being told to go to the wrong precincts, by both mail and the official website, and last-minute changes to actual precinct locations, but there may be problems with the actual voting.

On January 17, the Paul campaign sent out a message that seemed to indicate an anticipation of problems with recently registered Republicans. It urged supporters to use a provisional ballot if their name wasn't on the voter roll.

Today, the Paul camp is looking for poll watchers to verify the count. It even includes the suggestion to "be cool" if more than three want the job.

Then, an email went out about possible discrepancies with how provisional ballots would be used. Are some precincts not going to allow them? If they do, will they count them and include them in the totals reported to the media that day? Supporters are urged to "be vigilant to unscrupulousness" and to document anything fishy with "photos or video."

And if that's not enough, the Paul campaign was making automated calls Friday that seemed to be a response to some false information (that the caucus was starting at 9:30 a.m.) being spread by other callers.

No wonder Paul regional coordinator Jeff Greenspan told the Nevada Appeal he thought the party should consider postponing the caucus.

Latest Nevada Caucus Polls and News

The "dead heat" predicted by the Reno Gazette Journal earlier this week is no more, that is if you can believe polls this election season. Plus, the media drags out all the cliches for doing a story on Nevada.

• Reuters deals John Edwards a blow as their Nevada poll shows him a very distant third with just 12%. Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 42% to 37%.
• Mason-Dixon had similar results with Clinton leading 41% to 32% over Obama. Edwards was, again, far back with 14%.
• Unlike Reuters, Mason-Dixon also ventured into the Nevada GOP caucus where it found Mitt Romney favored by 34%. John McCain was second with 19%, Mike Huckabee third at 13%. Fred Thompson polled 8%, Ron Paul 7% and Rudy Giuliani 6%.
• Apparently being on I-80 isn't enough to avoid being called a "Remote Gold Town" by the media. Elko makes it big time with Democratic visits.
• The San Francisco Chronicle goes with the gambling theme in "Play the Slots, Vote for President."
• Ditto Time. Its "Betting Big on Nevada" manages to squeeze "show girls" and "croupiers" into the opening paragraph.

Nevada GOP Drops The Ball, Again

Once the Nevada State GOP ousted chairman Paul Adams a year ago there were high hopes that the party apparatus would revive itself under the new leadership of Sue Lowden. But by the looks of what has taken place with their first big event, Saturday's caucus, it looks like dysfunction still reigns.

First, of course, was the decision to make their delegates nonbinding which, while essential to keep them from being penalized by the Republican National Committee, had the net effect of relegating the Nevada GOP caucus to beauty contest status. Except for Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter, Republican candidates avoided the Silver State and instead focused on South Carolina or Florida.

But the biggest problem has been in the basic execution of the caucus. Thousands of postcards sent by party officials to registered Republicans directed them to the wrong precinct location. To make matters worse, the official website, nvgopcaucus.com, was also giving people wrong information.

And then there was the case of the Carson City precinct which was slated to be held at the Governor's Mansion. Apparently officials forgot to file the appropriate paperwork so they had to scramble for a new location this week.

As one disgusted Republican told us, "Maybe I'll just crash Harry's (Reid) party and stir things up by voting for Kucinich or something. At least I know where that is."

Obama Targeting Republican Women?

Either the Barack Obama campaign is embarking on a most unusual way of garnering caucus votes, or they got their hands on a bad mailing/call list.

A neighbor of ours received two glossy, full-sized campaign mailers Thursday. Both were for Obama. Both attacked Hillary Clinton. She also has been receiving calls from the campaign. The problem? The woman has been a Republican for years.

Of course, with same-day registration available for the Nevada Democratic caucus it just might be a bold plan to add outside voters. But we're leaning towards the "bum list" theory.

Anyway, while the first mailer takes Clinton to task for "put(ting) Washington thinking and Washington interests first," the second is interesting from a local perspective. Fighting back on attacks from Clinton that Obama hasn't been the best of friends to the pro-choice community, this mailer features Reno assemblywoman Sheila Leslie coming to his defense.

Presidential Candidates Converge On Nevada Friday

Democratic presidential candidates will swarm Nevada this Friday, some making the Elko, Reno, Vegas triangle all in a matter of hours. Hillary Clinton leads the pack with four events on tap.

Mitt Romney is the only GOP candidate scheduled to make a visit before Saturday's caucus.

Hillary Clinton
9:30 a.m.
A & B Printing
2900 S. Highland Drive, 18B
Las Vegas

12:30 p.m.
Elko Indian Colony Gymnasium
2250 Indian View Heights Drive
Elko

4 p.m. - 6 p.m.
Grand Sierra Resort, Silver State Pavilion
2500 E 2nd St.
Reno

w/Bill Clinton
8:30 p.m.
Greenspun Jr. High School
140 North Valle Verde Drive
Henderson

John Edwards
9:00 a.m.
John Edwards for President Las Vegas Office
4160 South Pecos Road, near Flamingo
Las Vegas
Click here to RSVP

Barack Obama
8:15 a.m.
UNR - Virginia Street Gymnasium (Reno, NV)
1664 N. Virginia Street
Reno

2:30 p.m.
Elko High School
987 College Ave.
Elko

5:30 p.m.
UNLV - Student Union Courtyard
4505 S Maryland Pkwy (Entrance at Pida Plaza)
Las Vegas

Elizabeth Kucinich
7 p.m.
Great Room of the New Student Union
University of Nevada, Reno

Mitt Romney
7:40 a.m.
Adobe Middle School
3375 Jennings Way
Elko

11:30 a.m.
Best Western Airport Plaza
1981 Terminal Way
Reno

Paul Leads Romney In Nevada Mailer Wars

When it comes to stuffing Nevada mailboxes with campaign literature, only two Republican presidential candidates are even bothering -- Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.

Still in the past few months they have managed 20 between them. However, Paul can be declared the official GOP "mailer" winner in the Silver State with 12.

Popular subjects among the two were taxes, immigration and abortion. Romney also went with a "Strong Economy. Strong Families. Strong Military." theme twice, while Paul had one targeted to women that touched on the war, health care, education and the economy. Paul was also the only one to compare his views to his opponents.

Below are the mailer topics.

Ron Paul
Candidate Comparison - 2
Guns - 2
Immigration - 2
Pro-Life - 2
Taxes - 1
Globalism - 1
Women - 1
Biographical -1

Mitt Romney
Taxes - 2
Immigration - 2
Strong Families, Economy & Military - 2
Pro-Life - 1
Biographical - 1

Latest Nevada Presidential Caucus Polls

Although it looks like most pollsters are staying away from Nevada, there were a pair brave enough to venture a guess.

The most recent is the Mason-Dixon poll commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Since it is prepped for release Friday, we only have a teaser of what all the numbers are tonight. But the January 14-16 survey does show Hillary Clinton leading by nine points and Mitt Romney up by 15.

American Research Group has also released their latest numbers, taken from January 9-14. However, it is worth noting that in prior states they have been flat-out wrong on the Democrats. Their ending poll for Iowa had Clinton by nine and in New Hampshire they had Barack Obama up by nine as well. They did, though, nail the numbers for Michigan pretty well.

Democrats
Clinton - 35%
Obama - 32%
Edwards - 25%
Undecided - 8%

Republicans
Romney - 28%
McCain - 21%
Thompson - 13%
Giuliani - 11%
Paul - 9%
Huckabee - 8%
Undecided - 10%

Nevada GOP Presidential Endorsements Starting To Appear

Unlike Nevada's Democratic politicians, who have been heartily endorsing presidential candidates for the past year, one would be hard-pressed to find any public Republican endorsements.

Maybe it's because they can't make up their minds or they just don't want to go on record with the GOP race so muddled. But we have been able to uncover at least three public endorsements that we know of.

State Senators Bob Beers and Barbara Cegavske are supporting Fred Thompson and, in fact, are his Nevada campaign chairmen. Beers has already been warning supporters to double-check their precinct locations (and with good reason).

The other endorsement is for John McCain. Reno Assemblyman Ty Cobb is hosting a Wine Tasting event for McCain this Thursday at the Siena's Enoteca. It's only $15 and, heaven forbid, they aren't even asking for campaign donations.

Nevada Polls, Lawsuits, Race and Another Ron Paul Ad Gimmick

Ron Paul on Roy Jones, Jr.'s back? Three billion dollars on political ads? A three-way tie for Democrats in Nevada? All that and a little more in our roundup of presidential caucus news.

• Nevada poll shows Dems in dead heat, brings out boatload of John Edwards supporters in comments section.
• But are these numbers to be believed? Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal says "take them with the larger than usual grain of salt."
• The Clinton versus Obama race war goes Wiki.
• But the war may already be over as Obama calls a truce.
• At least one Clinton speaks out on union lawsuit. Bill's for it.
• Candidates on pace for record media buy this year. Is $3.0 billion within reach?
• And finally, a media buy with a twist. Some Ron Paul supporters are allegedly trying to raise money to place an ad on the back of boxer Roy Jones, Jr. for his January 19th fight against Feliz Trinidad.

Nevada Democratic Caucus and Its Union Lawsuit

So is having special at-large Democratic precinct locations in big Vegas casinos specifically for Culinary Union workers to vote unfair?

Probably. But then, the very premise of a caucus isn't exactly fair. What with archaic rules, a built-in disadvantage for second-tier candidates and the not-so-small problem of having your vote literally out in the open for the scrutiny of your neighbors (or glaring union bosses), it is hardly a democratic system.

So is the Nevada State Education Association's lawsuit a strike for fairness for the common voter or just a political maneuver by a union whose leaders have been cozy to Hillary Clinton and not the Culinary-endorsed Barack Obama?

Of course it is political. If this was really a case of a bipartisan organization worried about precincts being created for the advantage of another organization a lawsuit would have been filed last year. After all, what about all the union grocery workers, miners, postal workers, retail clerks, gas station attendants, restaurant help or Reno casino workers who from the beginning knew they would be unable to participate in the small Saturday window that caucus rules allow? Apparently the plight of those disenfranchised voters didn't quite stir the soul of Nevada's teachers union as much as the Clinton slight by Culinary.

But despite the semi-sleaziness of the lawsuit, made all the more so by Clinton and Company's denial of any knowledge of this happening, there is merit to the complaint. Why should one segment of the voting public be given favor over the rest? This could never legally occur in a state-sponsored primary, but for a party-run venture does anything go?

What makes this all the more hypocritical is the big argument by Sen. Harry Reid to move Nevada's Democratic caucus into an early state role was it's supposed diversity. Somehow tilting it to the advantage of a union that represents barely 2.5% of the state's population hardly seems very diverse.

Other coverage of the lawsuit can be found below:

• Lawsuit against state Democratic Party (w/actual complaint) - Jon Ralston
• Lawsuit Over Precincts in Nevada - The New York Times
• Unions bitterly divided in Democratic race - L.A. Times
• In Vegas, Politics Comes to The Strip - The Washington Post
• Obama Questions Nevada Caucus Lawsuit - The Caucus (NY Times blog)
• Culinary leader: Closing sites on Strip would strike at caucus’ heart - Las Vegas Sun
• Behind Nevada casino walls is a political fight - Reuters

Random Nevada Caucus News

Nevada GOP problems, an angry Dennis Kucinich, Chuck Norris eating Texas BBQ for cash, religious oppression and more news for potential Nevada caucus goers or those who still care about the longest presidential race in U.S. history.

• Where are the Republicans? Not in Nevada apparently, causing state GOP head Sue Lowden to be "green with envy" over the visits to Michigan and South Carolina.
• Maybe it's because Nevada's GOP doesn't quite know how to caucus properly. Incline Village Republicans are given the wrong address for their caucus by party officials.
• Nevada to be invaded by union members. In one case, the union of municipal government workers is sending 100 paid staff to rally their members for Hillary Clinton. The problem? The union only has 3,000 members in the state. Barack Obama calls foul.
• Dennis Kucinch is mad at being dumped by NBC from Tuesday's Democratic debate in Vegas. Maybe, instead, he should be mad at American voters who have avoided him in droves.
• Nevadan spends $130K on Ron Paul. Mitch Lau helps keep the Reno News & Review in the black.
• Nevada newspapers are beefing up for the caucus. The Reno Gazette-Journal will issue a "10 to 12-page caucus primer" Sunday and vows to have "at least eight of (their) 85 news staffers" covering the story Saturday. So it won't just be Anjeanette?
• Interested in watching Chuck Norris eat BBQ? Or who Janet Napolitano just endorsed? Or who the heck Janet Napolitano is? The Houston Chronicle's Notebook has it all, and a little more.
• And, finally, the Wonkette exposes the hidden story of blatant religious exclusion of observant Jews by Nevada caucus organizers. No word on angry Seventh-Day Adventists yet.

Clinton's New Hampshire Victory Just Luck Of The Draw?

Forget Hillary's teary-turn mobilizing women or voters telling pollsters they support a minority candidate like Barack Obama but punch the ticket for another once in the privacy of a booth, the real reason for Clinton's victory was the letter Z, according to Stanford professor Jon Krosnick.

In elections past, the New Hampshire ballot would rotate candidate names from precinct to precinct. But this year they decided to have the names in the same alphabetically order in all precincts. The only random factor would be which letter they would start with. They drew a Z.

So Clinton was fourth, while Obama was mired near the bottom as the 18th name on the ballot (.pdf).

The significance?

"Our analysis of all recent primaries in New Hampshire showed that there was always a big primacy effect — big-name, big-vote-getting candidates got 3 percent or more votes more when listed first on the ballot than when listed last," writes Krosnick.

Add in the fact that most polling outfits rotate names when calling voters and that would help explain some of the discrepancies.

And if the names had been rotated on the ballot?

"The race would probably have been too close to call without a recount and might even have been an Obama victory."

New Hampshire Results and Thoughts

If Hillary Clinton's surprisingly good showing tonight in New Hampshire holds up, and at this moment with 63% of precincts reporting she has a 4,400 vote lead over Barack Obama, then the big story Wednesday morning will inevitably feature references of her as the comeback kid. Well, both Clinton and John McCain, who has already been declared the Republican winner.

Update: Clinton has just been declared the winner.

But there are some other possible storylines developing as we look at the early results:

Independents Voting Democrat
With registered Republicans representing 30% of New Hampshire voters, and Democrats at 26%, then one would assume if the 44% Independent vote broke evenly then the GOP would have a slight overall lead in votes cast. But with 62% of the precincts reporting, Democrats have so far won 55.2% of the overall vote.

While that doesn't bode well for the GOP in November, one wonders if independent voters currently voting for (presumably) Obama or John Edwards would go with McCain, who has done well with New Hampshire independents, over Clinton in a general matchup.

Is Edwards Finished?
After touting his squeaker second-place finish in Iowa as proof he is Obama's main opponent, his poor finish tonight (currently just 17%) should put the brakes on his chances, slim as they were. Polls for the next few states on tap for the Democrats all have Edwards placing a distant third and, with Clinton apparently resurrecting her campaign tonight, those numbers will only grow longer.

Will McCain Have The Cash To Compete?
Winning New Hampshire is nothing new for McCain, he did it in 2000 before a nasty South Carolina primary derailed him, but will he have the money to compete in the big media markets coming up. McCain finished the third quarter with just $1.6 million in cash on hand.

One possible infusion of cash McCain can look to is matching campaign funds. He has qualified for $5.8 million. But there are two problems with that option. One, McCain can't access those public funds until March and, two, his campaign would have to abide by strict rules on how much they can spend. The latter, of which, would put McCain at a distinct disadvantage if he should advance to the general and face Clinton or Obama, both of whom would not be constrained by limits.

New Gravel Video, Kucinich Attacks and Dirty Tricks

A Gravel video that isn't crazy hits the net, Dennis Kucinich explains why he doesn't like John Edwards, a round-up of the latest dirty campaign tricks and other political stuff to start the new week with:

• A new video explaining why one should vote for Mike Gravel debuts and, as an added bonus, it doesn't feature him standing around doing nothing like previous video ventures.
• Kucinich lets people know why he urged his Iowa supporters to vote for Barack Obama as a second choice. He thinks Edwards is a hedge-fund loving phony.
• A full rundown on the nasty campaigning in New Hampshire. And it is all from one day.
• Bill O'Reilly's run-in with an Obama staffer.
• Hillary Clinton channels John McCain in a jab at Putin.

Latest New Hampshire Presidential Polls

For the most part, and especially the very latest, New Hampshire presidential primary polls are leaning towards John McCain and Barack Obama. And if some are to be believed, the two are looking at some impressive victories come Tuesday evening.

Here is a round up of recent New Hampshire political polls:

January 7th

Democrats
CNN/WMUR (.pdf) - Barack Obama 39%, Hillary Clinton 29, John Edwards 16, Bill Richardson 7
USA Today/Gallup - Obama 41%, Clinton 28, Edwards 19, Richardson 6
Franklin Pierce University (.pdf) - Obama 34%, Clinton 31, Edwards 20, Richardson 6

Republicans
CNN/WMUR (.pdf) - John McCain 32%, Mitt Romney 26, Mike Huckabee 14, Rudy Giuliani 11, Ron Paul 10, Fred Thompson 1
USA Today/Gallup - McCain 34%, Romney 30, Huckabee 13, Giuliani 8, Paul 8, Thompson 2
Franklin Pierce University (.pdf) - McCain 38%, Romney 29, Huckabee 9, Giuliani 8, Paul 7, Thompson 2

January 6

Republicans
Concord Monitor - McCain 35%, Romney 29, Huckabee 13, Giuliani 8, Paul 7
Suffolk/WHDH - Romney 30%, McCain 27, Giuliani 10, Paul 9, Huckabee 7
McClatchy/MSNBC - McCain 32%, Romney 24, Huckabee 12, Giuliani 9, Paul 8, Thompson 3

Democrats
Concord Monitor - Obama 34%, Clinton 33, Edwards 23, Richardson 4
Suffolk/WHDH - Clinton 35%, Obama 33, Edwards 14, Richardson 5
McClatchy/MSNBC - Obama 33%, Clinton 31, Edwards 17, Richardson 7

Obama Camp First To Offer Fernley Help

Barack Obama's Nevada presidential campaign will be collecting goods for Fernley flood victims this Sunday, January 6, from 9 a.m to 11 a.m.

Donations of clothing, toiletries, bedding, etc. can be dropped off at the Obama campaign office at 141 E. Pueblo St., Suite B.

Obama's campaign was the first, and only one so far, to send out a message regarding the flood.

Book Publisher Promotes Clinton To Nevada Press

And Dennis Myers calls them on it.

The Reno News & Review reporter recently received a free copy of Carl Bernstein's biography of Hillary Clinton from Vintage Books. This in itself isn't unusual. But the package also contained material including a list titled "Top 10 things that will surprise Nevada voters about Hillary” that had the appearance of a campaign mailing.

Myers questioned whether it was an in-kind campaign donation, prompting a "flurry of activity at the publishing house." In the end, Vintage issued a statement saying it was only "bringing attention to sections of interest in our book that we thought might surprise Nevada readers" and that there was no coordination with the Clinton campaign.

Obama and Huckabee Big Iowa Caucus Winners

Apparently it wasn't as close as the polls thought, as Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee won Thursday's Iowa Caucus rather handily, at least percentage wise.

Although Obama will only gain one more actual Democratic delegate than Hillary Clinton, it's his nine-point victory over her that will be getting all the airplay and put tremendous pressure on her and John Edwards to do well in New Hampshire.

For Republicans, Huckabee's rumored slump didn't materialize as he had an nine-point advantage over Mitt Romney, with 93% of precincts reporting. Like Clinton and Edwards, New Hampshire now becomes a must-win for Romney.

Iowa Democratic Results
Barack Obama -- 38%
John Edwards -- 30%
Hillary Clinton -- 29%
Bill Richardson -- 2%
Joe Biden -- 1%
Undecided -- 0%
Chris Dodd -- 0%
Mike Gravel -- 0%
Dennics Kucinich -- 0%

Iowa Republican Results
Mike Huckabee -- 34%
Mitt Romney -- 25%
Fred Thompson -- 13%
John McCain -- 13%
Ron Paul -- 10%
Rudy Giuliani -- 4%
Duncan Hunter -- 1%

Joe Biden Second Iowa Caucus Casualty

Following quickly on the heels of Chris Dodd's withdrawal from the 2008 presidential race, fellow Democratic Senator Joe Biden is abandoning his campaign following a disappointing finish in tonight's Iowa caucus.

Biden finished with 23 state delegates, or just 1%.

Chris Dodd First Iowa Casualty

When his last pre-caucus campaign email seemed to have the air of resignation in it, one had the feeling the end was near for Chris Dodd and his presidential campaign. Now it is official.

After finishing with just one Iowa state delegate in tonight's Democratic caucus, or 0%, Dodd emailed supporters, telling them:

I count the past year of campaigning for the presidency as one of the most rewarding in a career of public service.

Unfortunately, I am withdrawing from that campaign tonight.

But there is no reason to hang our heads this evening -- only the opportunity to look towards a continuation of the work we started last January: ending the Iraq War, restoring the Constitution, and putting a Democrat in the White House.

I know a lot of you came to this email list through a shared desire to return our nation to one that respects the rule of law, and I want to make one thing clear to all of you:

The fight to restore the Constitution and stop retroactive immunity does not end with my Presidential campaign. FISA will come back in a few weeks and my pledge to filibuster ANY bill that includes retroactive immunity remains operative.

You've been an invaluable ally in the battle, and I'll need you to stick by my side despite tonight's caucus results.

So, one more time, thank you for all of your efforts throughout the course of this entire Presidential campaign.

We made a real difference in shaping the debate, and we'll continue to do so in the coming days, weeks and years.

I'll never forget you, and what we've fought for, together, over the past year.

Chris Dodd