YouTube/CNN Debate Didn't Spark Increased Blogger Activity

Apparently the buildup to last Monday's YouTube/CNN debate was more powerful than the actual post-discussion, as blog mentions for most candidates were down in our July 23-30 Dullard Mush blogger buzz survey.

Even the much talked about controversy over the Hillary Clinton cleavage article couldn't match last week's numbers (although the story did break near the end of our prior survey). Still, Clinton again ruled the roost by leading all presidential candidates in blog post mentions, beating fellow Democrat Barack Obama by about 1K.

Ron Paul fever also saw a significant drop off the past seven days, but still was easily the most blogged about Republican. Mitt Romney moved up to the two spot while Fred Thompson overtook Rudy Giuliani for fourth.

Last week's numbers are in parentheses.

Republican Presidential Results

1. Ron Paul 8,481 (13,857)
2. Mitt Romney 5,781 (8,633)
3. John McCain 5,030 (8,897)
4. Fred Thompson 5,067 (5,601)
5. Rudy Giuliani 4,011 (7,242)
6. Newt Gingrich 2,019 (1,554)
7. Mike Huckabee 338 (1,228)
8. Sam Brownback 334 (1,313)
9. Duncan Hunter 324 (397)
10. Tommy Thompson 307 (335)
11. Tom Tancredo 299 (393)
12. Chuck Hagel 201 (1,143)

Democratic Presidential Results

1. Hillary Clinton 14,622 (18,753)
2. Barack Obama 13,663 (17,455)
3. John Edwards 8,720 (12,803)
4. Al Gore 5,696 (10,988)
5. Bill Richardson 2,381 (2,977)
6. Joe Biden 2,314 (2,195)
7. Dennis Kucinich 2,094 (2,218)
8. Mike Gravel 1,841 (1,461)
9. Chris Dodd 1,470 (1,556)
10. Wesley Clark 334 (250)

Independent Presidential Results

1. Michael Bloomberg 1,609 (2,262)
2. Ralph Nader 278 (351)

Numbers were for a candidate's full name in "quotes" and taken from Google's Blog Search. Our survey does not differentiate between positive or negative posts. Since Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Michael Bloomberg are also frequently referred to as "Christopher Dodd," "Wes Clark" and "Mike Bloomberg" both variations were used and combined.

Readers Declare Gravel Winner Of YouTube Debate, or Why Online Polls Can't Be Trusted

Dullard Mush readers choose Mike Gravel and Hillary Clinton as the "winners" of the recent YouTube/CNN Democratic presidential candidate debate. Proving, once again, that online polls are anything but scientific.

While most analysts gave Clinton high marks and many declared her the night's winner, they were almost universal in their ranking of Gravel at or near the bottom.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama and Chris Dodd tied for second, while Joe Biden, whose performance was lauded in most corners, was the pick of only one reader.

But the people have spoken, or at least 35 of them.

Clinton Turns Cleavage Controversy Into Cash

Borrowing a page from John Edwards, who twice has used Ann Coulter for "Coulter Cash" pleas, the Hillary Clinton campaign has decided to tap into the controversy over her recent baring of cleavage on C-Span.

In a missive fired out to supporters this week, the email (pdf) states that "focusing on women’s bodies instead of their ideas is insulting" and urges reader to "take a stand against this kind of coarseness and pettiness in American culture." It also, of course, has two links to donate to the Clinton campaign.

Although using Edwards' tactic, the Clinton campaign also included a subtle jab at the former senator noting "you remember that Hillary’s jacket was the subject of some discussion among the candidates — because it was coral.”

One thing lost in the hype over the story was that it wasn't some hack churning out a little T&A. The reporter, Robin Givhan, was a 2006 recipient of a Pulitzer Prize for Criticism because of her "witty, closely observed essays that transform fashion criticism into cultural criticism."

Ron Paul Not Banned From Debate, But Others Are

Call it a great week for GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul. First he is featured in a positive New York Times Magazine article, then he handily leads all Republicans in blog mentions, and now he finds himself one of only four candidates invited to a August 20th presidential forum in Reno. All for a guy who didn't crack 1% in a recent Rasmussen Reports poll.

What makes the invitation all the more remarkable is who was also invited to the Brookings Institute/ABC News debate -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney (though they will accommodate Fred Thompson if he declares by then).

Following the game plan established for their Democratic candidate event, organizers added just one player from the "second tier." Only this time they apparently didn't use poll numbers as a criteria.

If so, why not Mike Huckabee, who was fifth (with 2%) in the above poll, or Sam Brownback, who was fifth in the recent Hotline poll (pdf pg. 9), or Tommy Thompson, who beat Paul in an ABC Poll, or even Duncan Hunter who tied the Texas congressman in that poll.

Instead, one would have to assume it was "cash on hand" that was the determining factor. Paul tied John McCain with $2.4 million, or more than the other second-tier candidates combined.

And while Ron Paul supporters are ecstatic over their candidate's inclusion, one again must ask why ban anyone this early? We're still almost half a year out from the first primary. What's the hurry?

Kim Wallin For Nevada Governor in 2010?

Apparently someone in Washington DC thinks so.

A Google search for "Kim-Wallin Governor 2010" came through today from the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. And while they probably didn't find anything helpful in that endeavor (Dullard Mush's link is an archive mash-up), they might have gleaned enough to know Nevada's new State Controller not only bumped off an incumbent (albeit recently appointed) but also won in GOP-leaning Washoe County.

Could 2010 see a Gibbons versus Wallin showdown?

YouTube Debate Buzz Powers Dems, Paul Continues GOP Assault

All the hype leading up to Monday's YouTube/CNN presidential debate did wonders for Democratic candidates in the blogging world. Well, that and some rabid discussion over Hillary Clinton's chest.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, not only did Ron Paul score a Sunday New York Times Magazine article, but he also was the king of blogger posts for Republicans. In his biggest week yet the Texas congressman easily outdistanced runner-up John McCain by almost 5,000 blog mentions.

With a last minute boost from cleavage hysteria, our survey ran July 16-23, Clinton led all candidates in blog mentions with 18,753. Barack Obama was second with 17,455 while John Edwards reclaimed third from Al Gore.

Last week's numbers are in parentheses.

Republican Presidential Results

1. Ron Paul 13,857 (8,020)
2. John McCain 8,897 (9,418)
3. Mitt Romney 8,633 (4,241)
4. Rudy Giuliani 7,242 (6,037)
5. Fred Thompson 5,601 (3,903)
6. Newt Gingrich 1,554 (1,066)
7. Sam Brownback 1,313 (1,392)
8. Mike Huckabee 1,228 (1,268)
9. Chuck Hagel 1,143 (423)
10. Duncan Hunter 397 (425)
11. Tom Tancredo 393 (1,184)
12. Tommy Thompson 335 (434)

Democratic Presidential Results

1. Hillary Clinton 18,753 (11,510)
2. Barack Obama 17,455 (9,571)
3. John Edwards 12,803 (7,949)
4. Al Gore 10,988 (9,509)
5. Bill Richardson 2,977 (1,973)
6. Dennis Kucinich 2,218 (2,219)
7. Joe Biden 2,195 (1,591)
8. Chris Dodd 1,556 (1,396)
9. Mike Gravel 1,461 (1,158)
10. Wesley Clark 250 (198)

Independent Presidential Results

1. Michael Bloomberg 2,262 (1,351)
2. Ralph Nader 351 (445)

Numbers were for a candidate's full name in "quotes" and taken from Google's Blog Search. Our survey does not differentiate between positive or negative posts. Since Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Michael Bloomberg are also frequently referred to as "Christopher Dodd," "Wes Clark" and "Mike Bloomberg" both variations were used and combined.

Biden, Dodd, Gravel and Kucinich Banned From Nevada Forum

The winnowing of presidential candidates invited to debates has officially started, as only four Democrats earned an invitation to an August 22 Reno forum.

Inside Nevada Politics reported the Opportunity '08 sponsored debate, slated to focus on education, wanted a smaller field so the invited candidates could "engage much more substantively." The tentative ground rules are for 20-minute speeches followed by just 10 minutes of audience questions.

Obviously, top-tier candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama earned their invites (a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed support of 39% and 28%, respectively), as did John Edwards (whose 14% actually puts him closer to second-tier status), but it does get a little interesting when it comes to how far organizers dipped into the "second-tier" pool. They opted only for Bill Richardson.

While Richardson has been the most frequent visitor to the Silver State, though the debate isn't on Nevada issues, that hasn't translated into nationwide poll success. Indeed, in the above-mentioned poll Richardson is supported by only 2%, the same as Joe Biden (who has done better than the New Mexico governor in most debates) and only one up on Dennis Kucinich.

Kucinich, meanwhile, could point to the recent FOX News poll which had him ahead of Richardson 3% to 2%. Other recent polls, by Zogby and Gallup, also show Richardson knotted within a point or two of Kucinich and Biden, yet those two didn't warrant an invitation.

If organizers want to use money as a criteria for admission, than Chris Dodd has a strong case to be made. The Connecticut senator had $6.4 million in cash on hand as of June 30, just behind Richardson's $7.1 million. Yet he too is apparently left out along with Mike Gravel.

Obviously at some time debates will have to focus on the major candidates, but have we really reached that point 15 months before the 2008 general election?

Natural attrition will eventually close the field (e.g., Tom Vilsack and Jim Gilmore), so why artificially do it when experienced candidates are still out there raising millions and campaigning across the country. Let's face it, a 20-minute stump speech with only 10 minutes of actual interaction hardly qualifies as a "substantive" event in the first place.

Who Won The YouTube/CNN Democratic Presidential Debate?

With the much-hyped first user-generated debate officially in the books, and with generally positive reviews, we will take a look at which candidate fared best in the YouTube/CNN democratic presidential forum.

Winners

For CNN's political analyst Debate Scorecard it was a clean sweep for Hillary Clinton. Bill Press thought she was "forceful" with a "good sense of humor," while GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez thought the New York senator "sound(ed) much less like an automaton than usual." Although they didn't choose him as the winner, all three thought Joe Biden was the most knowledgeable. "You could hear his deep knowledge and experience," said Bill Schneider.

Time's Joe Klein also went with Clinton, saying "(her) pointing out that the groundwork (for talking to 'foreign leaders') had to be done was, dare I say it, judicious and presidential...and made Obama look, well, inexperienced."

Chris Cillizza of The Fix was more generous, awarding "wins" to Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and the Format. "Watching the pre-debate coverage on CNN, they were setting themselves up for either a home run or a swinging strikeout. Well, in this viewer's mind, they belted it out of the park," said Cillizza.

Steven Stark of The Tote Board thought the candidates that did best "were those who came off as real and not overtly political." And those, according to Stark, were Barack Obama, Edwards and Biden, noting the Delaware senator did "especially (well) in the second half when he finally managed not to sound so angry."

The Politico's Roger Simon thought Edwards edged out Clinton, writing "John Edwards has found a theme: He is angry and he is on your side. He is bold and he will use his boldness for you."

Mark Halperin, of Time, gave Obama the nod with an "A-," saying "When he was good, he was very, very good. When he wasn't, he was dangerously close to ordinary."

Meanwhile, Survey USA polled 717 debate watchers and they declared Clinton the winner with 39%. Obama was second with 15% and Biden a close third with 14%.

CNN's online poll also went to Clinton with 48% picking the former first lady over Obama and Biden.

Losers

Again a clean sweep from CNN and, again, it wasn't good for Richardson, who has struggled in previous debates. Schneider thought the New Mexico governor "sometimes seemed a little shaky, but he got better as the debate went on."

Klein also wasn't too keen on Richardson's performance but only had "Enough already" to say about Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel.

Cillizza, who picked Richardson as a "winner," thought Gravel and Al Gore were the night's losers, saying of the former Vice President, "Gore always benefits if he seems like a missing presence in the debate hall. He wasn't last night."

Gravel was also awarded last place by Simon, but the Politico analyst also admitted "he is growing on us."

Halperin ranked Gravel a "D" but also wasn't too impressed with Richardson, saying he "didn't get to talk for the first 20 minutes — and it was downhill from there."

Gravel was the choice of the people as a third of those polled by Survey USA named the former Alaska senator as the night's loser.

CNN's online poll, though, rated Richardson as giving the most disappointing performance.

Ron Paul Makes The Times

While it does mention some of the more conspiracy-minded folks that do tend to gravitate towards him, on the whole, Sunday's New York Times Magazine profile on GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul had to please supporters.

Presented as a perhaps the most principled politician in the country, the article highlights his political career (elected three times to Congress as a nonincumbent), his many lone dissenting votes, economic philosophies and his popularity on the internet.

Perhaps most interesting is the wide spectrum of politically-minded people that like Paul. From liberal Democratic Congressman Barney Frank on the left to a
supporter from Maryland who believes the world is controlled by the "Bilderbergers" who "go to a place out in California known as the Bohemian Grove" and "do mock human sacrifices to an owl-god called Moloch."

Clinton Cleavage Causing Commotion

Forget about the War or budget deficits, the big news this weekend in political blogs apparently revolves around Hillary Clinton's cleavage. Yes, she has breasts and the Washington Post wants you to know all about them.

With a lead of "There was cleavage on display Wednesday afternoon on C-SPAN2. It belonged to Sen. Hillary Clinton," and a grainy out-of-focus picture, more worthy of a mimeographed church bulletin than the pages of Swank, the Post story starts out teasingly enough, but soon becomes a discussion of Donna Karan dresses and the meaning of cleavage in politics (yet, strangely, without once mentioning the lovely and talented Elizabeth Ray).

Of course, the reason for such sartorial discussion was the fact that the Robin Givhan-penned article was on the Style page, not news or politics. That, though, didn't stop a condemnation from NOW or a flurry of blogger angst. In fact, a Google Blog Search this afternoon shows almost 1,700 posts in the past week regarding Hillary's cleavage. Or, in other words, more posts than the majority of presidential candidates receive in our Dullard Mush Blogger Buzz survey.

This wouldn't be the first time the former First Lady's decolletage has been so thoroughly examined. Who could forget artist Daniel Edwards' "official" bust (pictured above) of "President Hillary Rodham Clinton" that debuted in 2006.

Update: In the grand tradition of anything can be turned into a fundraiser, especially in politics, the Clinton campaign as released an email discussing this story as well as asking for money.

Reno Blogger's Best Friend Returns; Same With Damon and the Other Ball

Many moons ago, whenever there was a big boost in traffic to your Reno-based blog it was a pretty good bet the Reno Gazette-Journal's James Ball had a hand in it. His online Blog Round-Up could send heaps of visits if your latest post was lucky enough to catch his eye and warrant a mention. But, alas, the good times came to an end a few months ago.

So, imagine my surprise to see some RGJ traffic coming my way for the Larry Parker/Angora fire post. The culprit? Blog Round-Up.

With apologies for the long hiatus, Ball is back with "your daily dose of quick hits from the Inter-Tubes."

The local blogging community welcomes him with open arms.

Damon's Return
Also back to the world of Nevada blogging is RGJ political reporter Anjeanette Damon. Fresh from a recent stint in school, Damon has been ramping up the paper's political blog, Inside Nevada Politics, this past two weeks. Today she passed along a C/Net story regarding Governor Jim Gibbons' email password being posted on the official state site.

By the way, it's "kennyc" which either honors former Governor Kenny C. Guinn or shows they're just too lazy to change it.

Molly Ball's Millionaire Rerun and Weird Coincidence
I don't think I've watched "Who Wants to Be A Millionaire" since ABC dumped Regis. But, for some strange reason, I had it on Thursday evening in Reno. In between reading Money magazine's "Best Places to Live 2007" (FYI: Nevada didn't make it), I watched as both contestants chose to walk away with $16,000 instead of trying for $25K. I always thought most all, if they made it that far, went for the "locked in" amount of $25K, or $32K on the original.

It was then that I thought of Las Vegas Review-Journal's political reporter Molly Ball. In late 2006 she had been a contestant and not only didn't balk at the $25K question but went on to do quite well. But how well? So as I sat there trying to recall her payday and casually wondering if it had entered reruns yet, I happened to look up at the screen and saw "Molly Ball, Las Vegas, NV."

Yes, it's true, I was already watching the Molly Ball episode. Or at least the first one, as her performance stretched into the next day's episode. And her tally? A cool $100K.

Giuliani and Clinton Lead Again; Bad News For The "Experience" Candidates

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continue to be their party's first choice for president as a pair of nationwide and one state poll bring more good news for the New Yorkers.

Clinton held a 16-point lead (39% to 23%) over Barack Obama in the latest Fox News poll (.pdf). Al Gore and John Edwards were far back at 9% each while, in a surprise, Dennis Kucinich was fifth at 3%. Bill Richardson placed sixth with 2%.

For the GOP, Giuliani was the pick of 27%, with Fred Thompson and John McCain tied at 16%. Mitt Romney was fourth with 9%, Mike Huckabee fifth with 3%. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were tied for sixth with 2%.

Clinton A Shoe-in for November?
As if winning the FOX News poll wasn't enough, Clinton was also the clear choice in a CBS News/New York Times survey. While her camp had to be pleased with her 19-point lead on Obama for the Democratic nomination, the news that 63% of all the polled voters thought she was "very/somewhat likely" to win it all next November had to be even better news.

Giuliani, meanwhile, was the Republican favorite, beating Thompson 33% to 25%. McCain trailed with 15% and Romney polled 8%.

Thompson Twins
Being the native son did help Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. In fact his 15% showing in a Strategic Vision poll, was his best showing yet. Unfortunately, that other Thompson also scored 15%. And Giuliani polled 24%. But Tommy did do better than McCain (10%) and Romney (6%).

For Democrats, Clinton outpolled Obama 40% to 24%. Following the big two were Edwards at 14%, Richardson 6%, Joe Biden 3% and Chris Dodd and Kucinich each with 1%.

So Much For Experience
And in a possible explanation of the above results, Wisconsin Democrats were also asked what they were looking for in a candidate, ideology, charisma or experience?

Experience finished third.

Larry H. Parker Comes To Tahoe

If you have ever lived or even visited Southern California in the past 25 years and turned on a television set, then you know all too well the words "Larry Parker got me ... 2.1 million."

Perhaps the original TV-advertising ambulance chaser, Larry H. Parker has now turned his sites to the recent Angora fire at Lake Tahoe. With TV spots up and running in the Reno market, complete with graphics mentioning pine needle buildup and tree removal, one figures Parker has his eyes on the Tahoe Regional Planning Authority and some of their controversial homeowner requirements.

Strangely, as embedded in California pop culture as Parker's commercials were (why did they only show the $2.1 million guy from the neck up?), his only presence on YouTube are spoofs. So here's Weird Al, circa 1999.

Campaign Fundraising Reports Boost Presidential Candidate Blogger Buzz

Last week's release of second quarter fundraising results provided a major boost in blogger posts about the 2008 presidential candidates. Virtually all who filed saw a jump in activity during the week of July 9-16.

For Republicans, John McCain recaptured the top spot, though his blog mentions were largely devoted to his disappointing numbers and crumbling staff. On the flip side, Ron Paul continued to garner blog attention especially with the surprise announcement that his campaign had the same amount of cash on hand, $2.4 million, as McCain.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama led Democrats, both in posts and in large amounts of cash. Al Gore slipped back to third, after his boost from the Live Earth concerts.

Possible independent candidates, Michael Bloomberg and Ralph Nader, also saw increased blogger interest. Nader, once again, hinted that he may gear up for another presidential run.

Last week's numbers are in parentheses.

Republican Presidential Results

1. John McCain 9,418 (4,281)
2. Ron Paul 8,020 (4,931)
3. Rudy Giuliani 6,037 (3,774)
4. Mitt Romney 4,241 (4,080)
5. Fred Thompson 3,903 (4,805)
6. Sam Brownback 1,392 (351)
7. Mike Huckabee 1,268 (372)
8. Tom Tancredo 1,184 (293)
9. Newt Gingrich 1,066 (321)
10. Tommy Thompson 434 (281)
11. Jim Gilmore 432 (196)
12. Duncan Hunter 425 (295)
13. Chuck Hagel 423 (397)

Democratic Presidential Results

1. Hillary Clinton 11,510 (7,155)
2. Barack Obama 9,571 (5,763)
3. Al Gore 9,509 (14,577)
4. John Edwards 7,949 (4,520)
5. Dennis Kucinich 2,219 (1,156)
6. Bill Richardson 1,973 (1,090)
7. Joe Biden 1,591 (339)
8. Chris Dodd 1,396 (468)
9. Mike Gravel 1,158 (378)
10. Wesley Clark 198 (164)

Independent Presidential Results

1. Michael Bloomberg 1,351 (510)
2. Ralph Nader 445 (262)

Numbers were for a candidate's full name in "quotes" and taken from Google's Blog Search. Our survey does not differentiate between positive or negative posts. Since Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Michael Bloomberg are also frequently referred to as "Christopher Dodd," "Wes Clark" and "Mike Bloomberg" both variations were used and combined.

Presidential Candidates Cash On Hand

(Note: These figures are for cash on hand at the end of the second quarter 2007. Check out our post on third quarter presidential candidates cash on hand for the latest figures.)

With Barack Obama smashing fundraising records every quarter it shouldn't come as any surprise that he currently has the most cash on hand of any 2008 presidential candidate.

Obama has $34 million on hand for the Democratic primary season according to second quarter reports, edging Hillary Clinton's $33 million dollar total. Clinton, however, also has $12 million at the ready for the general election while Obama has $2.3 million.

For Republicans, Rudy Giuliani was sitting on $15 million for the primaries with Mitt Romney next at $12.1 million ($6.5 million of it a personal loan). As expected, the news wasn't good for John McCain as his campaign reported only $2.4 million in the bank, the same as upstart GOP congressman Ron Paul. McCain has already spent over $22 million of the $25 he has raised.

All numbers are as of June 30, 2007.

Cash On Hand For Primaries (in millions)
34.0 -- Barack Obama (D)
33.0 -- Hillary Clinton (D)
15.0 -- Rudy Giuliani (R)
12.1 -- Mitt Romney (R)
12.0 -- John Edwards (D)
7.1 -- Bill Richardson (D)
6.4 -- Chris Dodd (D)
2.8 -- Joe Biden (D)
2.4 -- John McCain (R)
2.4 -- Ron Paul (R)
0.6 -- Tom Tancredo (R)
0.46 -- Sam Brownback (R)
0.44 -- Mike Huckabee (R)
0.21 -- Dennis Kucinich (D)
0.21 -- Duncan Hunter (R)
0.12 -- Tommy Thompson (R)
0.06 -- Jim Gilmore (R)
0.03 -- Mike Gravel (D)
0.01 -- John Cox (R)

Brothels and Billboards

A judge's ruling lifting the ban on advertising by Nevada brothels had the expected effect in the local media. While dutifully running interviews with a few concerned citizens and online polls showing the public is against brothels on billboards, it also provided the always ratings-friendly tradition of rolling tape of scantily-clad pros or stock photos of women undressing.

But for the 85% of KOLO-8 viewers who oppose brothels advertising on billboards I suggest they take a quick drive around Reno-Sparks. With one local casino brewery blanketing the area with ads stating "Nice Buns," "Great Head" and "Forking Fantastic" and another casino's I-80 billboard featuring a larger than life female derriere swallowing her bikini with a tagline of "Bottoms Up," is the world really going to end because of a "Moonlight Bunny Ranch 12 Miles Ahead" billboard?

Well, actually, people won't have to worry about that example as Bunny Ranch owner Dennis Hof intends to target TV and newspapers instead. "I want a Bunny Ranch ad in the entertainment section. I want a Bunny Ranch ad in the sports section, when guys open up the paper and when the tourists come to town," he tells the Reno Gazette Journal. "That's what we're mainly looking for, is tourists. The locals know where we're at, and they can find it."

One outlet Hof may want to start with is the Las Vegas Review Journal. The conservative newspaper applauded the judge's decision calling it a victory for free speech.

Nevada Caucus Ignored in Early Media Buys

Despite Nevada's number two slot in the 2008 presidential race, candidates have so far been loathe to spend any money on media buys, according to a recently released Nielsen Media Research report.

As expected, Iowa and New Hampshire dominated with 5,292 and 1,469 televised campaign spots as of June 10, 2007. But, somewhat surprisingly, states like South Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and the District of Columbia all saw media buys while the Silver State logged none.

While it was Duncan Hunter who officially fired the first shot with small buys in South Carolina (22 spots) and California (12), is was fellow Republican Mitt Romney who led all candidates with over 4,500 television spots (2,036 in Iowa) in seven states.

Democrats Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd were next in line as both heavily targeted Iowa. Richardson ran a total 1,931 spots in the Hawkeye State, Dodd 1,280.

Among front-tier candidates only John Edwards (68 TV spots) and Rudy Giuliani (642 local radio spots) had made media buys by early June.

As for online spending, it was John McCain buying the most as he saw over 40.8 million impressions from internet advertising in April and May of 2007. Romney totaled 5.75 million impressions in the same time frame, while Friends of Hillary logged 2.14 million views.

Despite the number of impressions bought by the McCain campaign, his official website finished far behind Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Edwards in actual unique visitors. In April, 2007, Obama had 647,000 unique visitors compared to McCain's 212,000. Obama's site was also the most "sticky" of all candidate sites with the average amount of time spent per visitor clocking in at over six minutes, Republican Ron Paul was second with just over five minutes. By contrast, Richardson visitors spent the least amount of time on site, staying for only a little more than two and a half minutes.

Another Day, Another Edwards Fundraising Gimmick

Despite his campaign being closer to second-tier candidates than Hillary Clinton in nationwide polls, that hasn't stopped John Edwards from blanketing email accounts with a constant barrage of fundraising gimmicks.

After tapping conservative pundit Ann Coulter twice for quarter-ending appeals and selling his Mom's pecan pie recipe for $6.10 donations, Edwards is now soliciting $8 in the name of poverty.

"The cynics might attack us—but people like you know that $8 is a small but meaningful commitment to our campaign to end the plight of the one in 8 Americans who are living in poverty today," he tells his supporters perhaps anticipating the most obvious response many will have -- "Hey, aren't you the guy who spends $400 on a haircut?"

But, proving not all campaign emails are junk, the latest announces a return visit for John and his wife Elizabeth to Nevada.

This time John will visit Las Vegas for a town hall meeting Wednesday, July 11, at noon in the Sheet Metal Workers Local #88 building at 2560 Marco St. Meanwhile, Elizabeth will officially open the Reno campaign office, 700 Smithridge Dr. Suite 101, at noon on Sunday, July 15. Check the above links to RSVP.

Gore Rides Concert To Dem Blogger Buzz Title, Paul Reclaims GOP with Stephanopoulos Assist

Live Earth and George Stephanopoulos helped Al Gore and Ron Paul become the most blogged about presidential candidates (or, more accurately, possible candidate) for their party during the week of July 2-9.

As expected, this weekend's Live Earth concert put Gore front and center in the blogging world as his 14,577 posts easily won the week. Hillary Clinton was second for the Democrats, with the only other significant move being Dennis Kucinich overtaking Bill Richardson for fifth.

Paul saw his appearance on Sunday's "This Week" (and his "bet" with Stephanopoulos) boost him to the top of the GOP pack in blogger mentions. Likewise, Chuck Hagel saw a small boost from his Sunday "Meet The Press" appearance to lead the tightly packed second-tier, where only 200 posts separate 6th through 13th place.

For independents, Michael Bloomberg saw blogger interest continue to wane, dropping about 65% from the prior week's survey.

Last week's numbers are in parentheses.

Republican Presidential Results

1. Ron Paul 4,931 (4,301)
2. Fred Thompson 4,805 (5,183)
3. John McCain 4,281 (4,950)
4. Mitt Romney 4,080 (4,629)
5. Rudy Giuliani 3,774 (3,818)
6. Chuck Hagel 397 (251)
7. Mike Huckabee 372 (343)
8. Sam Brownback 351 (1,361)
9. Newt Gingrich 321 (1,052)
10. Duncan Hunter 295 (324)
11. Tom Tancredo 293 (332)
12. Tommy Thompson 281 (286)
13. Jim Gilmore 196 (198)

Democratic Presidential Results

1. Al Gore 14,577 (6,139)
2. Hillary Clinton 7,155 (8,864)
3. Barack Obama 5,763 (8,151)
4. John Edwards 4,520 (7,256)
5. Dennis Kucinich 1,156 (1,615)
6. Bill Richardson 1,090 (1,963)
7. Chris Dodd 468 (639)
8. Mike Gravel 378 (1,030)
9. Joe Biden 339 (393)
10. Wesley Clark 164 (170)

Independent Presidential Results

1. Michael Bloomberg 510 (1,477)
2. Ralph Nader 262 (280)

Numbers were for a candidate's full name in "quotes" and taken from Google's Blog Search. Our survey does not differentiate between positive or negative posts. Since Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Michael Bloomberg are also frequently referred to as "Christopher Dodd," "Wes Clark" and "Mike Bloomberg" both variations were used and combined.

Longshots Paul and Gravel Make Their Case To MSM

Presidential candidates, and internet favorites, Ron Paul and Mike Gravel had a chance to make their case to a national audience Sunday on ABC's "This Week," though host George Stephanopoulos wasn't buying that they have even the slightest chance of winning.

After Gravel announced he will be president because "one of the great beauties of this country of ours is that anything is possible in politics," Stephanopoulos replied "Anything is possible, but that is not going to happen."

The GOP's Paul also had a hard time convincing the host of his viability as a candidate. When Stephanopoulos said the Texas congressman wouldn't win, Paul asked if he would bet every cent he had on that statement. Stephanopoulos said "Yes."

Still, it was a chance for Paul to expand on his foreign policy stance and Gravel to explain his unusual campaign videos.

Giuliani and Clinton Lead New Jersey; Thompson Takes North Carolina, Dems Tied

Poll lovers can peruse a myriad of New Jersey matchups courtesy of Quinnipiac University. Whether you crave a Fred Thompson versus Al Gore fight in the Garden State or just want to see what Michael Bloomberg would do to the race, it is all there in their latest poll.

The not so surprising news is that when it comes to the primary, New Jersey strongly favors Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Clinton owns a 19-point lead over Al Gore(!), 22 over Barack Obama and a whopping 31 over a fading John Edwards. Take Gore out of the mix and Clinton's lead only increases as Obama trails by 27 points and Edwards 38.

The GOP's Giuliani also holds a commanding lead in Jersey. The choice of 46%, his nearest rival, John McCain, only musters 11%. Thompson is third with 9%.

As for a head-to-head matchup between Giuliani and Clinton, the former NYC mayor holds a 47-44 advantage. But, if Bloomberg throws his hat in the ring, things become even more knotted with Giuliani and Clinton tied at 36% and the current NYC mayor polling 18%.

North Carolina Poll

The race couldn't be any closer for Democrats in North Carolina as Public Policy Polling (.pdf) shows a three-way-tie in Edwards' home state.

Clinton and Obama each scored 27% with Edwards one point back at 26%.

For Republicans, Thompson holds a comfortable lead over Giuliani (34% to 15%). Newt Gingrich polled third with 13% while McCain was fourth with 7% and Mitt Romney fifth with 6%.

Latest Presidential Polls Bring Something For Almost Everyone

A raft of recently released presidential polls have brought rays of hope to a variety of candidates. Though it was mostly good news for Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton, there were rays of hope for Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and even the beleaguered John McCain.

• Giuliani grabs the main prize as a Gallup Poll had him edging Clinton 49% to 47% in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters.



• Both Giuliani and Clinton continue to enjoy healthy leads in delegate-rich California. Clinton was the Democratic choice with a whopping 49%. Barack Obama weighed in at 24% with John Edwards third at 14%. Giuliani stood at 32% for the GOP with Thompson and McCain tied at 19% and Romney at 9%.



• Romney, though, received good news in New Hampshire as he was favored by 26% of likely voters in a Rasmussen Report poll. Thompson and Giuliani trailed with 17% followed by McCain at 15%. American Research Group (ARG) also gave Romney the nod with 27%, but had McCain second at 21% and Thompson polling only 10% for fourth.



• The Granite State continued to hold for Clinton as ARG gave her a nine-point advantage over Obama (34-25) with Edwards third at 11% and Bill Richardson fourth with 6%. Rasmussen was more generous to Clinton, giving her a 17-point lead on Obama (38-21) with Edwards and Richardson statistically tied for third.



• Iowa continued the good news for Clinton as she edged Edwards 32% to 29%. Obama was the choice of 13% while Richardson polled 5% (down from the prior month's 8%).



• Romney, meanwhile, surged to the front in Iowa according to ARG. Jumping from third to first, the former Massachusetts governor lead with 25%. Giuliani trailed at 18%, Thompson 14% and McCain 13%.



• McCain, though, could claim victory in South Carolina as he continues to lead that state with 23%. The downside, however, is the Arizona senator had been polling in the mid-30s. Giuliani was second at 22% with Thompson surging to 19%. Romney was a distant fourth at 8%.



• Clinton also laid claim to South Carolina with a 15-point lead on Edwards (it was only four points last month). Obama was third with 21%, just a point behind Edwards. Joe Biden was fourth with 3%.



• And, if one hadn't guessed it already, Clinton also is the Democratic favorite nationwide according to Rasmussen. The New York senator was the pick of 39% (her best showing of the year) with Obama trailing at 26%. Edwards was third with 13% while Richardson polled 5%. Dennis Kucinich and Biden each scored 3% with Chris Dodd at 1%.



• Finally, Thompson was the Rasmussen nationwide winner for the fourth consecutive week with 27%. Giuliani was a close second with 24% while Romney was third with 13%. McCain garned the support of 12%. Mike Huckabee was fifth with 3% and the only other GOP candidate to crack the 1% barrier.

Fred Thompson New Most Blogged About Republican Candidate

Fred Thompson was the most blogged about Republican presidential candidate in our most recent survey (6/25-7/02) and he hasn't even officially declared yet. The former U.S. Senator jumped from fourth to the top spot with over 5K blog mentions.

Hillary Clinton continued to lead all candidates with 8,864 posts, though Barack Obama closed the gap considerably (to just 713) from the prior survey.

Following the prior week's announcement of his change in party affiliation, newly Independent Michael Bloomberg saw his number of blog mentions tumble. However, he still logged more posts than a dozen of the other candidates.

Last week's numbers are in parentheses.

Republican Presidential Results

1. Fred Thompson 5,183 (4,847)
2. John McCain 4,950 (5,445)
3. Mitt Romney 4,629 (5,442)
4. Ron Paul 4,301 (5,137)
5. Rudy Giuliani 3,818 (4,708)
6. Sam Brownback 1,361 (1,306)
7. Newt Gingrich 1,052 (1,127)
8. Mike Huckabee 343 (1,171)
9. Tom Tancredo 332 (322)
10. Duncan Hunter 324 (289)
11. Tommy Thompson 286 (296)
12. Chuck Hagel 251 (257)
13. Jim Gilmore 198 (280)

Democratic Presidential Results

1. Hillary Clinton 8,864 (9,907)
2. Barack Obama 8,151 (7,684)
3. John Edwards 7,256 (5,789)
4. Al Gore 6,139 (5,387)
5. Bill Richardson 1,963 (1,475)
6. Dennis Kucinich 1,615 (1,389)
7. Mike Gravel 1,030 (1,105)
8. Chris Dodd 639 (628)
9. Joe Biden 393 (309)
10. Wesley Clark 170 (199)

Independent Presidential Results

1. Michael Bloomberg 1,477 (4,726)
2. Ralph Nader 280 (289)

Numbers were for a candidate's full name in "quotes" and taken from Google's Blog Search. Our survey does not differentiate between positive or negative posts. Since Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Michael Bloomberg are also frequently referred to as "Christopher Dodd," "Wes Clark" and "Mike Bloomberg" both variations were used and combined.

Giuliani and McCain Wise To Skip Iowa Forum, Paul Lucky To Be Excluded

When the most-reported aspect of the recent Iowa GOP presidential forum was a question to Mitt Romney asking where would the Bible be in guiding presidential actions, "above the Book of Mormon or would it be beneath it," you realize just how smart it was for Rudy Giuliani and John McCain to avoid this candidate event like the proverbial plague. And as for Ron Paul being banned from it, he should drop to his knees and thank his lucky stars (besides, according to some, his rally across the hall outnumbered the actual forum by a couple hundred).

One can give Romney credit for a nuanced and thoughtful response ("People of faith have different doctrines and different beliefs on various topics of a theological nature"), but it had the net effect of failing twice.

First, it didn't appease the person, Mary Van Steenis, who asked the question. She later told reporters she wanted to know specifically if he had to look to only one of those books which would it be. Disappointed in Romney's response, Van Steenis noted that the topic "is serious to me."

But perhaps the biggest problem with the question and Romney's answer is also the most obvious. When faced with a difficult decision wouldn't the book most Americans want their President to consult for help be a briefing document? An in-depth pro-versus-con analysis? The Constitution? In other words, something tangible to the actual problem.

But Romney didn't say that. In fact, his campaign apparently felt compelled enough to quickly issue a statement that he had taken his oath as governor on an actual family Bible.

With the GOP increasingly being viewed unfavorably as anti-science and beholden to a small core of conservative Christians, why add to the problem by once again pandering to this shrinking constituency that harms you everywhere else.

As hard as it apparently is for some Republicans to believe, it wasn't just decadent East Coast liberal Democrats snickering when a third of the GOP presidential candidates said they didn't believe in evolution, or abortion-loving scientists booing the veto on stem cell research (based not on a small-government argument of private sector funding versus public, but on religious grounds). It was average Americans, including Republicans, shaking their head in disbelief and disappointment.

Purported to be a conservative forum, perhaps one of those candidates attending should have found the courage to quote the actual founder of modern conservatism -- Barry Goldwater.

"There is no position on which people are so immovable as their religious beliefs. There is no more powerful ally one can claim in a debate than Jesus, God, or Allah, or whatever one calls the supreme being.

But like any powerful weapon, the use of God’s name on one’s behalf should be used sparingly. The religious factions that are growing throughout our land are not using their religious clout with wisdom. They are trying to force government leaders into following their position 100 percent. If you disagree with these religious groups on a particular moral issue, they complain, they threaten you with a loss of money or votes or both.

I’m frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in A,B,C, and D. Just who do they think they are? And from where do they presume to claim the right to dictate their moral beliefs to me?

And I am even more angry as a legislator who must endure the threats of every religious group who thinks it has some God-granted right to control my vote on every roll call in the Senate. I am warning them today: I will fight them every step of the way if they try to dictate their moral convictions to all Americans in the name of conservatism."